Another interesting thing La Vanguardia .- Rafael Poch "The current food crisis is not conjunctural"
Brown said in Beijing that has already started the "food scare" among the most dependent, and believes that the situation in India is "most critical" by the depletion of aquifers
U.S. researcher Lester Brown, was the first to point out that China's urbanization will create a world food problem. The decrease of arable land for the benefit of the asphalt, cities and infrastructure, would end the first with self sufficiency in this country. Then, new needs imports of grain from the world's most populous nation, would create a global shortage problem.
Chinese jumped into his throat. Demonstrated, with numbers, that this thesis was wrong and some spoke of the famous Western malevolence. In 1998, China was abundant harvest, but during the next five years was lower than consumption and it had to be imported. Today China is the world's leading importer of soybeans, in part to make room for crops, corn and wheat, more productive, and recognized in the protection of agricultural land one of the most sensitive issues. In 2003, Brown was made an honorary member of China Academy of Sciences. Yesterday, the founder (in 1974) the glorious Worldwatch Institute in Washington and the Earth Policy Institute (2001), returned to Beijing where he met with the deputy minister of environment, Pan Yue, an active advocate of Brown's thesis in China . "Unfortunately," he says, "I asked many questions, though I might make mine," he told a group of foreign journalists, to those who gave an overview of global food problems of the near future. Unlike in 1997, Brown now if you heard in China. Himalayan glaciers are melting at a faster pace than anywhere else in the world. These glaciers feed major rivers of Asia (Yangztze, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Mekong ...) and ensure the flow during the dry season. Without the contribution of glacier, the Ganges, for example, lost 70% of its flow in dry season, and the Yellow River would something like that. Many of the rivers of Asia would become something like the Mediterranean streams, rivers that carry water station when it rains. The problem is that 80% of China's crop and 60% of India's dependent on irrigation. What will happen to their populations, with China being the leading producer of grain and India the second (U.S. third) ?. "What happens to wheat and rice in China and India, is a matter that matters to everyone, "said Brown, according to which" the stress associated with the food crisis will increase the number of failed states in the world. "One, Pakistan is a nuclear power, warns. What is happening now is "the global food price inflation more severe in history, rice, wheat, corn, prices doubled and even tripled, the never seen". In seven of the last eight years, global grain consumption has exceeded production, which means that global stocks are falling. They had never been so low. "Unlike past crises, the current shortage is not cyclical, but trend" and that for reasons of both demand and supply, "on the one hand, more and more people who consume more, each year we add 70 million people. And we have maybe four billion who want to move up the food chain, consuming more products requiring grainy, more milk and more meat. On the other hand, a massive increase in demand for grain to make biofuels dedicated. " Although it is generally felt that the new appetite of China's population, fewer poor, is what matters, it only responds to an increase of 2 million tons per year. Beside, the United States spend 20 million tonnes per year to produce ethanol. The crisis of global grain production is due to several reasons. Some of the main stem from the scarcity of water. The groundwater level is falling in most of the world because of over-extraction. "In Saudi Arabia in 1976 realized that they were highly vulnerable to food though, so we drilled 800 meters to find water and become self-sufficient in wheat. Thirty years later, the aquifer is being depleted and its production decreased by 1 win , 8% annually and is projected cesarla 2016. The same is happening in Yemen. In India the aquifers are declining in almost every state. The World Bank estimates that 15% of Indian grain production (food for 170 million) is the result of over-extraction water, and by definition, is something short-term over-extraction, because the water eventually wear out. "Another reason is the decline in arable land by growing urbanization, and a depletion of the use of new technologies to increase productivity." The Japanese, who are the most efficient rice producers in the world, say that technology has peaked. "global warming adds to the situation," for every degree increase in temperature is expected about a 10% decrease productivity, "says Brown." What we tend to forget is that global agriculture as it exists today, evolved over a period of 11,000 years of considerable stability climate, and when the weather begins to change, agriculture began to fall together with their environment. "shortage crisis has created a" food scare "among the countries that import grain. The attitude of exporters such as Russia, Argentina or Vietnam, restricting or prohibiting sales in reaction to the situation, even increase of the phenomenon. Yemen, which depends on imports to 80%, is currently trying to negotiate an agreement on long-term wheat to Australia. The Philippines have a situation similar and try to negotiate a five-year agreement with Vietnam. Jamahiriya (90% dependence) is leasing 100,000 hectares in Ukraine to ensure a stable supply. Egypt is attempting a similar agreement. South Korea seeks to do the same thing in Eastern Siberia. India is trying to lease land in Uruguay and Paraguay. China has already leased land in Kazakhstan and study it in Burma and other places ... "It's a whole new chapter in the world, we've never seen anything like this before," says Brown. Globally we will witness unusual situations, explains the professor. In northern China is exploiting the deeper aquifer, which when finished, and not recovered. For example, in the scenario of a further drop in grain production in China, the solution is that it is directed to the U.S., world's leading exporter wheat and corn, which would boost prices. "For America to ban the export will be tempting as it did in the past, but China has a lot of U.S. securities, it's practically your banker," he says, illustrating possible dilemmas. The situation has no exits "national" but points out, "global decisions." Four of them are clear and should answer these questions, "How can we fight global warming, how to prevent the impoverishment of large sectors of the global population, how to control population growth?, And how to restore degraded natural systems? ". In the short term, India is "the most critical country "because of its dependence on the exploitation of the aquifer, while China should focus on the efficiency of water use. In the two most populous countries, water is at the center. Brown, who was official of the U.S. administration says that we are to major institutional changes, including the United States. "Wall Street" for example, "is turning its back on coal," he says. However, the global crisis will be very difficult to solve without a change in values, especially the values \u200b\u200bof Wall Street. In his only socio-political consideration, Brown recalls that in his country, "none important changes began in Washington. "Everything from the civil rights movement, to campaign against smoking," born from below. "With the changes required by the current crisis will be the same, he suggests.
0 comments:
Post a Comment